A Diplomatic Breakthrough
Somalia and Ethiopia have taken a crucial step in restoring relations after a year of diplomatic estrangement. The fallout began when Ethiopia signed a deal in early 2024 with Somaliland, a self-declared independent region of Somalia. The agreement offered Ethiopia access to a Red Sea port and a naval base, bypassing Somalia’s central government. This move was perceived as a direct affront to Somalia’s sovereignty, leading to the expulsion of Ethiopia’s ambassador from Mogadishu in April 2024.
Efforts to mediate the rift began mid-year, led by Türkiye, a nation with strong ties to both countries. The Ankara Declaration, signed in December 2024, set the framework for reconciliation. During Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s January 2025 visit to Addis Ababa, he and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced the restoration of full diplomatic ties. Both leaders highlighted their commitment to dialogue and pledged to collaborate on trade, security, and counter-terrorism.
Ethiopia’s Maritime Aspirations
At the centre of the dispute is Ethiopia’s long-standing ambition to gain sea access, an issue it has grappled with since becoming landlocked after Eritrea’s independence in 1993. Ethiopia’s 2024 agreement with Somaliland was seen as a way to secure a strategic foothold on the Red Sea. However, the deal provoked outrage in Somalia, which views Somaliland as an integral part of its territory.
Somalia opposes Ethiopia’s unilateral agreements with Somaliland, insisting that any negotiations involving Somali territory must be conducted through Mogadishu. The Ankara Declaration reinforced this stance, with both nations committing to a “one-door policy” that ensures Ethiopia engages only with Somalia’s central government regarding territorial matters.
The exact terms of Ethiopia’s sea access remain undefined, and tensions surrounding Somaliland’s status persist. While Ethiopia sees maritime access as essential for its economic growth, Somalia views Ethiopia’s ambitions as a threat to its sovereignty.
Türkiye’s Role in Mediation
The Ankara Declaration represents a significant diplomatic achievement for Türkiye, whose mediation efforts have been widely praised. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan facilitated several rounds of talks, culminating in the December 2024 agreement. The declaration laid the groundwork for technical negotiations scheduled to begin in February 2025, with a resolution expected within four months.
While the declaration has temporarily eased tensions, the implementation of its terms will be challenging. Ethiopia’s insistence on securing sea access and Somalia’s refusal to compromise on Somaliland’s status highlight the fragility of the agreement.
Regional Alliances Shape the Horn of Africa
The reconciliation between Somalia and Ethiopia is unfolding in a complex regional context. Somalia has aligned with Egypt and Eritrea to counter Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions. This alliance, formalized in October 2024, reflects shared concerns about Ethiopia’s growing influence in the Horn of Africa.
Egypt, a vocal opponent of non-coastal states establishing a military presence in the Red Sea, has bolstered Somalia’s security with arms supplies and military cooperation. Egyptian troops recently joined the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), enhancing efforts to combat al-Shabaab, the al-Qaeda affiliate operating in the region.
These alliances underscore the broader geopolitical rivalries in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions, coupled with its contentious Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project, have positioned it as a focal point of regional disputes.
Somaliland’s Role in the Dispute
Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991, remains at the heart of the Somalia-Ethiopia conflict. While Somaliland operates autonomously, its independence is unrecognized internationally. Ethiopia’s agreement with Somaliland not only strained relations with Somalia but also complicated Somaliland’s efforts to gain legitimacy.
For Somalia, any recognition of Somaliland’s independence is unacceptable. Ethiopia’s decision to bypass Mogadishu and engage directly with Hargeisa exacerbated tensions, raising questions about the legality and legitimacy of such agreements. The Ankara Declaration aims to address these issues, but Somaliland’s future role in negotiations remains uncertain.
Shared Security Concerns
Despite their differences, Somalia and Ethiopia share a common enemy in al-Shabaab, which continues to destabilize the region. The Ankara Declaration emphasizes the need for enhanced security cooperation, with both nations committing to joint efforts against extremist groups.
The year-long rift had jeopardized this cooperation, with Somalia threatening to expel Ethiopian peacekeepers from the African Union mission. The restoration of diplomatic ties has eased these tensions, but effective collaboration will require mutual trust and a resolution of broader disputes.
The Road Ahead
The restoration of diplomatic relations between Somalia and Ethiopia is a promising development, but significant challenges lie ahead. Resolving disputes over sea access, territorial integrity, and regional influence will require sustained commitment and transparency.
The technical negotiations facilitated by Türkiye offer an opportunity to address these issues, but their success will depend on both nations’ willingness to compromise. As the Horn of Africa navigates its complex geopolitical landscape, Somalia and Ethiopia must prioritize diplomacy to ensure lasting stability.
A Fragile Reconciliation
Somalia and Ethiopia’s decision to restore relations marks a critical moment for the Horn of Africa. The Ankara Declaration provides a foundation for dialogue, but its implementation will require careful navigation of historical grievances and competing interests.
Ethiopia’s maritime ambitions and Somalia’s insistence on sovereignty remain contentious issues, while regional alliances add further complexity. In a region plagued by instability, the reconciliation between Somalia and Ethiopia is a step toward peace, but the road ahead is fraught with challenges.
The international community, particularly Türkiye, has played a vital role in facilitating this reconciliation. As Somalia and Ethiopia work to rebuild trust, their ability to address unresolved disputes will determine the future stability and prosperity of the Horn of Africa.
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